Mitigation of An Anthropogenic Disaster
Temperatures in urban and rural areas have been steadily increasing globally compared to pre-industrial times, largely due to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Water shortages, rising sea levels, scorching heat waves, and extreme weather conditions are expected to persist and intensify, disrupting delicate ecosystems and harming vulnerable communities in the process. In adherence to the Paris Agreement, signed by 195 parties, including my country, Saudi Arabia, a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been set (UNCC). Public policy initiatives must implement effective measures to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C by 2050 to avoid catastrophic consequences globally and nationally. In a study conducted by G20 Risk ATLAS, researchers found that without any immediate climate action, Saudi Arabia will witness a 4,232% increase in heatwave duration and an 88% increase in drought frequency, resulting in 12.2% loss of GDP by 2050.
Zooming out, Arable lands globally experienced the worst degradation. Research by the Grantham Centre (2015) revealed that 33% of arable land has been lost largely due to climate change. This, combined with extreme weather conditions, had a devastating impact on global crop production. Global farming output dropped 21%, a seven-year worth of farm productivity since the 60s was wiped out (Friedlander, 2021). The ensuing volatility in food prices has become a major concern for developed and developing countries alike. As global demand for food increases, disruptions in food production lead to numerous price hikes for different produce, from the sharp rise in the price of oranges in the United States to the dwindling yields of vegetables and olive oil in the UK and the Mediterranean region, respectively, all the way to falling production of rice in China (Dwyer, 2024).
The negative effects of GHG emissions and climate change will disproportionately impact low-income families, as they tend to live in places that suffer from degraded infrastructure and are much more exposed to the dangers of extreme weather events. Increased temperatures are forcing families to spend more on energy to cool their homes. 80% of families in Texas with low to moderate income reported the dilemma of choosing to cut on food to afford electricity (Hao, 2025). This policy brief will evaluate policy initiatives to save energy, lower costs for families, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a national level, while also presenting alternative policy options to achieve the same goal.
Insulation Subsidies
Homes and buildings’ energy use is a significant contributor to overall national levels of emissions, and aiming for energy efficiency by targeting these areas can prove pragmatic and cost-effective. Thus subsidizing insulation schemes has become a trusted way among developed nations to reduce energy use, bills, and greenhouse gas emissions. In Germany, the building sector, which constitutes the construction and maintenance of buildings, emitted around 210 million tonnes of GHG in 1990, and in 2018 it was responsible for 14% of all CO2 emissions in the country (Bundesregierung, n.d.). Efficient energy initiatives were introduced by the German government to tackle this problem. In January of 2020, a tax relief was granted for energy-efficient building measures that consisted of insulation of external walls and roofs, among other building requirements. Those who qualify for these programs will enjoy a 20% decrease in tax payable (Bundesregierung. n.d.). Similarly, in 2020, the German Development Bank (KfW) increased repayment grants for low-interest loans used for building or renovating energy-efficient homes by 10%. Borrowers can benefit from a total of 40% in repayment grants to join this initiative (Bundesregierung. n.d.). If successfully implemented, these policies are projected to help reduce emissions to 70 million tonnes by 2030 according to the Climate Change Act (n,d).
However, weak foresight and a lack of pre-inspection verification can lead to shoddy implementation of energy-efficient renovation. Unvetted private contractors can take advantage of the subsidized insulation schemes and offer homeowners subpar results that can cost them thousands of dollars. In France, for instance, a scam proliferated where homeowners were offered a €1 eco-friendly insulation that left them with poorly done or incomplete jobs that later cost €15,000- €18,000 to fix (Connexion, 2020). Low-income households are usually targeted by these scams, leaving them with renovation bills that bankrupt them (Connexion, 2020). This problem can be mitigated by enforcing rigid qualification requirements for private contractors before engaging in any energy-efficient construction job. The KfW enforced a pre-inspection requirement that involves the examination of experts to ensure correct implementation (Kluttig, 2017).
Urban Transportation
One alternative policy path is focused on commuting. The use of typical combustion engine vehicles, such as cars and vans, for transportation emits around 3.6 gigatonnes of CO2 globally every year, (International Energy Agency, 2025), which constitutes around 11% of total global emissions (Statista, 2022).
Car CO₂ emissions by region in 2023. Adapted from "Cars and Vans," by International Energy Agency, 2024, https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/cars-and-vans. © IEA 2024.
This option will target a major source of emissions in cities by making alternative modes of travel more appealing through feasible means. This can be achieved by making the private cost of driving a car or a van higher than the social cost. In 2006, Sweden started charging vehicles for driving on congested city roads, causing a 19% drop in vehicle use and 15% in CO2 emissions in just a few months (Sloman & Hopkinson, 2019). However, in order for congestion charging to be effective, an attractive alternative must be offered to opt for the change. In the example of Sweden, major investments in public transportation and urban design were in the works before congestion charging was introduced (Sloman & Hopkinson ,2019). Cheaper psychological methods can also be introduced to nudge the public away from driving. In the United States, not disimmliar to Saudi, emissions from driving are a major issue, the city of Durham, North Carolina, started sending emails to 1,500 downtown workers with personalized maps detailing routes for walking, biking, and using the bus (Gardner, 2019). The emails also contained social influence tactics with phrases like “Driving downtown is so 2017” (Bliss, 2018). Recipients of these emails were 12% more likely to ditch the car (Gardner, 2019).
Implementation costs for the changes can be on the higher end, even when taking non-intrusive psychological interventions into account. It did cost Sweden around $400 million to invest in bus capacity (Transek, 2006) and $350 million to set up the congestion pricing scheme (Lehe, 2017). A further cost-benefit analysis must be conducted to evaluate the implications of this policy.
Energy Production
Targeting consumption to curb emissions can prove effective in some cases. However, it overlooks the primary issue of production. Hard-to-abate industrial sectors, such as steel, oil & gas, petrochemicals, and cement, contribute 25% of all global emissions annually, amounting to 9 gigatonnes of CO2 (International Energy Agency, 2022). Decision makers quickly recognized the potential of industrial innovation to address the pressing problem of the enormous emissions and its implications on climate change with varying levels of success. In 2022, then-President of the United States Joe Biden introduced the Inflation Reduction Act. This landmark bill focused, among other things, on investing in clean energy by gradually allocating $400 billion of federal funds toward clean energy initiatives (Badlam et al., 2024). A significant amount of these funds was delivered via tax credits for clean electricity projects. Electricity produced from renewable sources, clean energy projects, zero-emission nuclear power production, and more were the targets of these tax credits (Bhutada, 2023). If implemented effectively, this bill can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, according to the American Department of Energy (Bhutada, 2023).
Due to the massive dependency on hard-to-abate traditional energy sources, shifting away to cleaner energies while necessary, can be difficult and long drawn out. Almost all the Kingdom’s energy sources come from natural gas and oil, making up 99% of the total energy supply, as shown below (International Energy Agency, 2022).
Ecosystem Restoration
The ecosystem is a crucial part of containing GHG emissions. Trees, plants, and other greenery suck out CO2 from the atmosphere to produce oxygen through the process of photosynthesis. Rapid industrialization and urbanization, combined with the natural spread of disease, have weakened the capacity of this natural decarbonizer. In the past decade alone, the UK councils destroyed around 455,000 trees (McFadden, 2024), resulting in an estimated 8 million tonnes of CO2 no longer being absorbed from the atmosphere (Forest Research, 2023).
Ecosystem restoration can be a viable and relatively cheap policy to reduce emissions in urban and rural areas. Indonesia launched a successful campaign for peatland restoration spearheaded by the Peatland Restoration Agency in 2016. The initiative focused on restoring the greenery damaged by internal and external factors by installing cheap concrete canal dams as a rewetting mechanism and promoting natural plant growth (Savitri, 2020). In just a few years, the healing ecosystem is estimated to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 98.7 megatonnes (Gunawan et al, 2023, p 141-157).
While the policy proved successful in the forest-dense country of Indonesia, implementing such efforts in a highly urbanized land area comes with its unique challenges.
Recommendations
While all the policies analyzed in this brief have their advantages and can be implemented in tandem, the situation demands urgency and fundamental change. As we close in on the deadline set by the global Paris Agreement, a shifting focus from consumption to production is key to preventing global warming from reaching 2.0 °C. Evidence shows that emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure are already enough to warm the globe beyond 1.5 °C (Morton, 2023). This necessitates a total ban on any new investments in traditional fossil fuel energy sources. As U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres (2022) emphasized, new investments in fossil fuels would be considered “economic and moral madness”.
Massive investments and subsidies in green energy programs are a must to facilitate the shift from fossil fuels. Particularly, funds should be funneled to research and development in renewables to achieve technological breakthroughs in energy production and accelerate what otherwise would be a drawn-out process.
As natural disasters are becoming more frequent and intense, temperatures are on the rise, and ecosystems are deteriorating, addressing GHG emissions is more pressing now than ever. Energy savings through effective insulation schemes can be a solid policy route for tackling emissions. It alone, however, will not be sufficient to reach the desired goal of reducing global warming. We recommend a focus on energy production and a gradual shift from fossil fuels to green energy through the ban of new investments in fossil fuels and directing those funds to subsidies, tax credits, and investments in green research and development, amounting to 1.4 trillion Riyal a decade.
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